Retail sales volumes rose for the fourth consecutive month in September 2025, defying forecasts of a decline and offering a rare bright spot for the high street and online retailers alike. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a 0.5% monthly increase, against expectations of a 0.2% fall, as shoppers snapped up newly launched tech and bought gold jewellery online.
Tech launches lift electronics
Statisticians at the ONS said food store sales were essentially flat, but warmer weather in July and August lifted clothing purchases and online retail, “also did well”. The late-summer boost dovetailed with a wave of product launches: Nintendo’s long-awaited Switch 2 and Apple’s iPhone 17 helped lift electronics through August and September, drawing queues in-store and brisk pre-orders online.
Within non-store retailing, online jewellers reported notably strong demand for gold. Economists suggest this reflects fashion trends and gold’s appeal as a perceived safe-haven asset during economic uncertainty. Alex Kerr, UK economist at Capital Economics, said the better-than-expected monthly reading was welcome, but cautioned that “weak employment, high inflation and tax rises on the horizon” could limit momentum. He added that robust demand for gold likely mirrors recent strength in global prices.
Looking beyond the monthly snapshot, the underlying trend strengthened. Between July and September, retail sales were 0.9% higher than the previous three months. Online spending over the quarter rose 3.5% compared with the second quarter and was up 5% year on year, underscoring the continued resilience of e-commerce. Retail sales volumes measure the quantity of goods sold, stripping out price effects, and are a key gauge of household demand.
Consumer caution tempers outlook
Despite this, the picture is mixed. Consumer sentiment remains fragile, with GfK’s long-running confidence survey indicating that many households are delaying purchases ahead of Black Friday. Retail analyst Catherine Shuttleworth said the “constant background of running commentary on the upcoming Budget” likely encourages caution, particularly for discretionary categories.
Sector performance varied. Clothing benefited from the late-summer weather and promotional activity. Electricals spiked around the console and smartphone launches, reinforcing the role of product cycles in driving footfall and clicks. Food, by contrast, showed little growth as shoppers continued to trade down, switch formats, or search for value across supermarkets and discounters. Non-store retailing, which includes online-only sellers and catalogue operations, remained a relative outperformer thanks to convenience, wider choice and fast fulfilment.
Outlook varies
Methodology matters when interpreting the figures. The ONS compiles data from all large retailers across Great Britain and a representative sample of smaller firms. Monthly readings can be volatile, influenced by weather, holidays, product launches and promotions, so analysts tend to place more weight on quarterly trends. ONS statistics inform Government policy and the Bank of England’s decisions, including interest rates. That makes reliability critical, and a recent review was sharply critical of some aspects of the ONS’s economic outputs. Like many national statistical bodies, the ONS faces budget constraints and declining survey response rates, complicating data collection. The agency invests in methods and administrative data sources to improve quality and timeliness, but users should still interpret single-month moves with care.
What does this mean for the outlook? The fourth straight monthly rise suggests consumer demand is more resilient than expected, supported by product innovation and online shifting. However, headwinds remain: real incomes are still under pressure, employment growth has softened, and fiscal policy may tighten. If energy bills and borrowing costs stabilise into winter, retailers could see steadier trading, especially if Black Friday promotions are disciplined and well-targeted. However, sustaining growth will likely depend on improving confidence, keeping supply chains smooth, and policymakers clarifying taxes and the Budget.
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